FREE: Explosive WRs in good spots Week 2
Receivers who have success deep and face off against a vulnerable secondary this week.
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While I put a bit more weight into Week 1 stats as it relates to carries and targets, a deep threat from 2022 is still going to be a deep threat in 2023 unless there was a material change to their environment. That makes it a bit easier on my end, I’m just going to recycle the same graphic I brought forward last week, looking at the wide receivers who operated as an elite explosive pass-catcher.
I just don’t think one week of aDOT numbers is enough, and it surely doesn’t deserve to outweigh what we saw last season just yet.
Where we can do a bit of work is looking into how some of the circled defenses to target fared in Week 1, and whether or not we should continue looking their way.
2022 defensive metrics
Week 1 numbers
Teams that find themselves in the top-12 for both lists:
Detroit Lions
Pittsburgh Steelers
Los Angeles Chargers
Chicago Bears
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Seattle Seahawks
Let’s end the circling there. There are seven defenses above who had issues slowing down big plays through the air last season that continued to see that be a problem to start 2023.
Who gets to play them?
Explosive pass-catchers that see secondaries susceptible to big plays in Week 2
Consider the below names solid looks for either a long reception prop or yardage bets, whichever you may prefer.
Mike Evans vs. Chicago
Mike Evans wrapped 2022 as the third-most explosive WR, albeit with Tom Brady throwing him the football instead of Baker Mayfield.
Still, Evans finished with 66 yards in Week 1, hauled in a 28-yard pass and led the team with a 12.1 aDOT. This isn’t the first time Evans’s name has popped up this week.
Mike Williams vs. Tennessee
This of course assumes Williams’s health, as he left the game in Week 1 but did return. If Williams is active, he could be in for a solid day against a Tennessee secondary that was picked apart on Sunday.
Williams comes in as the 21st ranked deep threat last year thanks to a well-balanced standing of aDOT, yards/catch and 20+ yard catches.
Rookie Quentin Johnston led the team with a 12.0 aDOT in Week 1.
Alec Pierce vs. Houston
Hoh boy if you want to roll the dice, consider Alec Pierce to pop against this vulnerable Texans’ secondary. Pierce was the 29th-ranked deep-threat last season thanks to a solid 12.2 aDOT and an impressive 14.5 yards/catch.
He was relatively quiet in Week 1 with Anthony Richardson, catching just one ball for five yards, but he led the team in aDOT.
Michael Pittman may be more of a possession receiver when you look at the numbers, but he was targeted 9 times in Week 1, turning that volume into 97 yards. He broke off a 39-yard catch and run and fellow WR Josh Downs hauled in a 20-yarder of his own.
Amari Cooper, Donovan-Peoples Jones & the Cleveland WRs vs. Pittsburgh
A couple of repeat names from last week, and two guys who let us down. Despite not hitting their long reception lines, it wasn’t due to a change in their role.
Cooper’s aDOT was 13.6, while DPJ’s was 15.5. FWIW, Deshaun Watson targeted Marquise Goodwin twice 20+ yards down the field (no completions) and new WR Elijah Moore once, which yielded a 33-yard pass.
If this room is a bit too crowded to trust last season’s No. 6 and No. 15 deep threats, I completely understand.
Moore led Cleveland in targets at six, followed by Cooper (5).
Honorable mentions
Josh Reynolds vs. Seattle
Reynolds operated as this team’s deep-threat last year, leading the group with a 13.2 aDOT (Marvin Jones was on Jacksonville). His Week 1 aDOT was 11.7, and he led the team in receiving with 80 yards, including a 33-yard catch.
Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf vs. Detroit
Neither Lockett or Metcalf found themselves inside the top-30 of most explosive threats last year, and now Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in the fold. This room is a bit too crowded for me right now to place any bets on.
Metcalf had a 15.8 aDOT in Week 1, and Lockett’s was 15.0, both of which would have been among the league’s best last year.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. LA Chargers
NWI fell under my 50-target threshold that I looked at to rank each pass-catcher from 2022. He looks a bit intriguing when you bring him back in and see his 15.9 yards/catch last season, coupled with his 14.5 yards/catch in Week 1.
Thanks for reading! There’s been plenty of research done up to this point:
Touchdown targets
Secondaries to target
Rushing defenses to target
More to come, subscribe today!