FREE: NFL defenses that allowed the most receptions to each position last year & who faces them Week 1
Stats to help your Week 1 NFL bets
This one is a bit simple: let’s take stock of which defenses allowed the most receptions to each position last year. Things will shift in 2023, of course they will, but it doesn’t mean we can’t glean some intriguing insights in advance of Week 1.
Receptions are certainly one of the more absolute player props you can be betting. While yardage takes into account far more factors once the ball reaches your receiver’s hands, receptions happen immediately, and volume can be a bit easier to peg.
Most receptions allowed to TEs in 2022
TEs who face off against the most generous defenses to receptions in Week 1
Logan Thomas vs. Arizona
Austin Hooper & Michael Mayer vs. Denver
Juwan Johnson vs. Tennessee
Gerald Everett vs. Miami
Dawson Knox & Dalton Kincaid vs. NY Jets
Adam Trautman & Greg Dulcich vs. Las Vegas
Of the names above, Gerald Everett is notable, having finished last year ninth among tight ends in targets at 82. Dawson Knox, Juwan Johnson, Logan Thomas and Austin Hooper all finished with 56+ targets.
There’s quite a bit of buzz around Logan Thomas with new offense coordinator Eric Bieniemy in town. Bieniemy moved to Washington from Kansas City and helped lead an offense that had a tight end you may have heard of in Travis Kelce.
Most receptions allowed to WRs
WRs who face off against the most generous defenses to receptions in Week 1
Mike Evans & Chris Godwin vs. Minnesota
Chris Olave & Michael Thomas vs. Tennessee
Drake London vs. Carolina
DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett vs. LA Rams
Robert Woods & Nico Collins vs. Baltimore
Marques Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore & Kadarius Toney vs. Detroit
Drake London is a fresh name that could be an intriguing option in Week 1, especially if this looming holdout of Carolina’s star edge-rusher Brian Burns leaks into the season. London saw 114 targets last year, good for 20th-most in the NFL.
The Houston wide receiver room is a bit of an unknown right now, with additional names in the fold like Noah Brown, John Metchie and Tank Dell. The game script against a superior Baltimore team should likely call for plenty of passing attempts.
Regular readers will once again see Chris Olave here on this list against the Tennessee secondary.
Most receptions allowed to RBs
RBs who face off against the most generous defenses to receptions in Week 1
Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery vs. Kansas City
Deon Jackson vs. Jacksonville
Antonio Gibson vs. Arizona
Javonte Williams vs. Las Vegas
Travis Etienne vs. Indianapolis
New Orleans RBs vs. Tennessee
Austin Ekeler vs. Miami
There are some really intriguing names on this list. It’s easy to see why so many have already locked in Jahmyr Gibbs’ receptions for Thursday night against Kansas City, though I’d like to see him in action before I place a bet on him. Don’t sleep on David Montgomery, also joining this Detroit offense. He saw 39 targets last year, catching 34, giving him the fifth-best catch percentage among RBs with at least 30 targets.
Speaking of catch-percentage, Deon Jackson figures to benefit in the passing game without Jonathan Taylor. He saw 34 targets in 16 games last season, catching all but four of them.
Austin Ekeler has the potential to smash in Week 1. Ekeler led all running backs in targets last year with 123, which was good for the 17th-most among all players last season.
Antonio Gibson was 12th among running backs with 57 targets, and Travis Etienne was 22nd with 43.
It’s tough to say how this New Orleans running back group looks until Alvin Kamara is back from suspension. Jamaal Williams is the top back, but not much of an option in the passing game. Backup Kendre Miller is batting a hamstring injury and also didn’t do much damage through the air in college. I’ll stay away.
With that, our Week 1 targets are starting to tighten up. We’ve gone through quite a few resources up to this point, and have seen plenty of overlap as we dive into varying metrics and rankings. Stay tuned here for how the board shakes out and a full menu of players to consider for your Week 1 NFL betting.
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