Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens betting preview
Everything you need to know for betting NFL player props in Houston vs. Baltimore.
Wild Card weekend was a major success in the straights market around here, I’d have to say. A big reason why was the names we identified in these game previews, and staying solid against the process that has gotten us to where we are this season.
As we move further into the postseason, defensive vulnerabilities may grow a tad scarcer, and after compiling the metrics, it’s no surprise why teams like Baltimore and San Francisco are sitting here with first-round byes.
Still, there is opportunity abound in each matchup this week, and now it’s about digging into the players that might be most likely to take advantage.
We’ll start with the first postseason game: the Houston Texans vs. the Baltimore Ravens. I’ll make this article free for everyone to read, but that will be it. Make sure you can explore the other three game previews and our week recap by becoming a paid sub today.
Texans vs. Ravens key metrics
Depending on how much value you place in Houston’s relative shut-down of Joe Flacco and the Browns, you might be a bit more hesitant to back Baltimore, but for this week, I’ll still be trusting the season-long data that we’ve been using. Flacco did go for 300+ yards, it was just Amari Cooper who failed to get going.
What stands out
Houston’s RBs might be in the best spot to produce, given Baltimore’s ranking in receptions allowed/game and yards per rush
Baltimore’s passing game seems to be in a good spot, and the TEs should be in for a big day against a Texans that has let up the most receptions/game to the position and just saw David Njoku rattle off a big day against them
Players to consider
Lamar Jackson
Considering both the Baltimore WRs and TEs are showing up here, we may as well just start with the man throwing them the football. Nine of the last 13 QBs to face Houston have gone over their yardage prop, and Jackson is averaging 300.3 yards/game in his past three home games.
Jackson’s line is currently in the 220 range.
Rashod Bateman and/or Odell Beckham
Houston ranks highly in 20+ yard passes allowed and yards/pass, suggesting that one of Baltimore’s deep threats could pop here. It’s a tad difficult to differentiate these two at the moment, so here’s a look at their numbers as we work through how to attack this vulnerability.
Beckham
62 targets
16.1 yards/catch
14.9 aDOT
13 targets 20+ yards down the field (21% of total targets)
Bateman
55 targets
11.5 yards/catch
14.7 aDOT
13 targets 20+ yards down the field (23.6% of total targets)
I think I lean OBJ.
Isaiah Likely (keep an eye on status of Mark Andrews)
Before we go any further, it’s important to note that Mark Andrews’s practice window was opened, and he had a limited practice session to begin this week. The Ravens star TE is still on IR, but this is something we’ll need to monitor before we can put any money down on the situation.
If Andrews does play, I have a hard time trusting him, he could very well be out there as a decoy or in limited snaps. That would be frustrating because it then would also mean we can’t fully endorse Likely in what is a very inviting matchup.
Likely averaged 3.8 catches/game between Weeks 12-17. TBD on this one, hopefully we get clarity soon.
Devin Singletary
Baltimore is allowing the ninth-most receptions/game to RBs and the seventh-highest yards per rush, so one would have to consider Singletary a solid bet for a high-usage day.
Singletary took 13 carries for 66 yards and. TD last week, catching three balls for four yards. He has 3+ catches in four of his last five games and has 60+ rushing yards in five of his last six,
Baltimore has allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of their last five games.
Things to maybe avoid
It’s very hard for me to recommend we fade CJ Stroud (again) after what he just did against Cleveland, but it’s equally hard for me to feel good about backing him against this defense.
I’ll gladly watch and enjoy the show if he keeps the magic rolling, but I’m not going to be able to put a bet on him based on these numbers.
Next up: Green Bay vs. San Francisco. Be sure to subscribe to never miss a post!