NFL rushing defenses to bet against in Week 9
Running backs set for big games this week in the NFL.
You may have caught it before I left, but we’ve started better organizing some metrics of note for rushing defenses. It makes my life easier and it should be more helpful than our old approach to rushing props. Sounds like a win-win to me.
As I’ve already said a few times this week, we typically audit our looks from the week prior, but forgive me for dropping that this week since the past two weeks were done at once before my trip (when can I stop mentioning this?)
Instead, we get right to the numbers and the names to know this week.
2023 rushing defense metrics
Do you think it’s worth starting to bring in some advanced metrics, such as DVOA and PFF grades? I’d be open to it, don’t be shy in giving me some feedback, either on Twitter or by emailing me at griffcarroll@gmail.com.
The above is relatively simple, wouldn’t you agree? All I’m looking at is how many yards per game teams are allowing to running backs, and how many yards per rush attempt each defense is allowing.
You could consider using the above table to load up some unders if you want to, but I’ve fallen right into the sportsbook trap of wanting to root on things to happen rather than the inverse.
As such, I’m just focused on the rush defenses that look like some tasty targets.
Rush defenses to target
I’m focusing on quality at the moment, so I’d like to see run defenses that rank favorably in both categories. Just as an exercise, I’ll include where each defense ranks in DVOA, to see if these metrics are aligning with the advanced looks.
Denver Broncos* (30th-ranked run defense DVOA)
Carolina Panthers (32nd DVOA)
Las Vegas Raiders (29th DVOA)
Pittsburgh Steelers (14th DVOA)
New York Giants (27th DVOA)
Arizona Cardinals (31st DVOA)
*on bye
For the most part, pretty clean overlap here between defenses that rank as generous to runners and low in DVOA, with the lone exception being the Steelers.
I think I’d like to bring forth two other run defenses that are near the top of the above table because of rushing yards allowed/game to RBs and low on DVOA, that being Green Bay (24th DVOA) and Cincinnati (25th DVOA).
That gives us seven run defenses worth targeting, though there could perhaps be some slight reason for pause on Pittsburgh if you really value DVOA ranks.