Secondaries to target for passing/receiving props in Week 2
Who draws vulnerable secondaries in Week 2?
I’m big on showing my work early in the season. 2022 trends only carry us so far, and if we don’t audit and adjust our looks, we’re never going to have a profitable season.
With that in mind, today’s piece is really three-fold.
Status check on whether our secondary targets should remain so
Add new secondaries to target based on Week 1 performances
Circle the players and teams who are up next against these vulnerable secondaries
There were 10 pass defenses we circled as potentially weak to begin 2023, and an additional two more that looked good for explosive plays. Let’s take stock of how each did in Week 1 and whether or not we’re going to move forward with them as targets for Week 2.
Atlanta Falcons
Held Bryce Young to 146 yards. Top WR was Terrace Marshall with just 23 yards.
Verdict
🛑 Avoid for now though keep them on the back-burner considering we’re judging a one-week sample size against a rookie QB with mediocre pass-catchers.
Chicago Bears
Jordan Love passed for 245 yards, tossing multiple 30+ yard passes. All this without their top WR.
Verdict
🟢 Continue targeting Chicago for passing props.
Cincinnati Bengals
Deshaun Watson threw for just 154 yards. Two leading receivers were Elijah Moore (43 yards) and Amari Cooper (37). Two 20+ yard passes were completed, which was what put Cincy on the map here.
Verdict
🟡 If an explosive WR is opposite the Bengals, I’m willing to take a chance on a long reception prop, but I’m wary.
Green Bay Packers
Justin Fields threw for 216 yards. Darnell Mooney led the day with 53 receiving yards.
Verdict
🟡 The Bears were dominated, it’s too early to glean whether the secondary is growing back to a strength or if Chicago is that bad.
Houston Texans
Lamar Jackson threw for only 169 yards, but WR Zay Flowers had a big game (9-78) and Odell Beckham hauled in a 29-yard catch.
Verdict
🟢 Ready to continue targeting Houston.
Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of WRs had some big games in Calvin Ridley (8-101-1) and Zay Jones (5-55-1).
Verdict
🟢 Full steam ahead against this Indy secondary.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Anthony Richardson threw for 223 yards and top WR Michael Pittman had a big game, finshing with 8-97-1.
Verdict
🟢 Looks like Jacksonville remains a solid target, even moreso when you consider this was Richardson’s first start.
Las Vegas Raiders
Russell Wilson finished with just 177 yards, and the leading WR on Denver finished with 32 yards.
Verdict
🛑 Las Vegas graded out poorly by DVOA and PFF metrics, which put them here. They were good at limiting explosive plays last season and that continued early here. I’ll pass for now.
Los Angeles Rams
Geno Smith and the Seahawks had themselves a dud. Smith finished with 112 yards, though top WR did score a touchdown and go for 47 yards.
Verdict
🟡 Still on my radar, but that performance gives me pause for sure.
Minnesota Vikings
Baker Mayfield may have finished with only 173 yards, but top WR Mike Evans covered his props, going for 6-66-1. Chris Godwin chipped in 5-51.
Verdict
🟢 Considering our expectations for Mayfield and Tampa, I’m encouraged and confident in continuing to target the Vikings.
New York Giants
Dallas didn’t need to push it much in this one, so we didn’t get a terrific glimpse at what to expect here. Top WR CeeDee Lamb did finish with 4-77 thanks to a 49-yard catch.
Verdict
🟢 I’m okay targeting this team again
Tennessee Titans
Derek Carr went for 305 yards, and all three of New Orleans’ top WRs hit their yardage overs. Chris Olave (8-112), Rashid Shaheed (5-89-1) and Michael Thomas (5-61) took advantage of this weak secondary.
Verdict
🟢🟢 You better believe it.
Pass defenses that made the cut after one week
Chicago
Houston
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Minnesota
NY Giants
Tennessee
Week 1 metrics
If I’m going to bet a wide receiver’s yards, I’d like to know that the defense opposite him is susceptible to the big play. There are a few familiar faces that top this list from Week 1, like Tennessee, Chicago and Indianapolis, but we also should probably bring in both the Chargers and Seahawks into the fold. Both secondaries ranked inside the top-12 of defenses vulnerable to explosive plays in 2022. I gave them the benefit of the doubt that improvements would come, but alas, that appears to not be the case.
Side-note/rant: It is extremely difficult to find these 20+ yard passes allowed numbers. It was a major pain-point last season, and I’m not seeing a better solution yet early in Week 1. This week was easy enough, I just looked at each QB’s 20+ yard passes and attributed them back to the defense. That is going to become more challenging as the weeks go on, but I shall find a way.
Alrighty, so we’ve got nine secondaries that are rising above the rest to me as viable Week 2 targets. Why don’t we go ahead and see who gets to play them?
Players set to face the worst secondaries in the NFL Week 2
Week 1 numbers are in bulleted form, and 2022 numbers are displayed with screenshots. I have a feeling you’ll crack that code, because AJ Brown did not see 137 targets last week.
Philadelphia Eagles WRs vs. Minnesota
AJ Brown: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 11.3 yards/catch, 18.6 aDOT
DeVonta Smith: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 6.7 yards/catch, 9.8 aDOT
Quez Watkins: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 8.5 yards/catch, 1.5 aDOT
I’m liking both Brown and Smith on Thursday night, though twist my arm and AJ’s explosiveness stats after last week, along with easily outpacing DeVonta last year in the same, has me leaning him. Similar body-type to Mike Evans as well, who had a solid day against this secondary.