The worst rushing defenses from last season and Week 1 players set to take advantage
Early-season NFL betting opportunities
For some reason, I find it easier to circle the defenses that struggle to stop the run. While I pair together a few varying metrics to quantify a struggling secondary, all I really care about when judging the quality of a run defense is yards allowed per carry. I suppose I could tack on things like rushing defense DVOA and PFF’s run defense grades, so I’ll do that here for completion’s sake. However, yards allowed per carry is to the point and accomplishes what I need to see.
With that in mind, let’s dive into how 2022 defenses fared against the run, any additions they made that might make that less of a problem in 2023, and then who gets to face them to start this fresh NFL season.
Bottom-10 Run Defenses last season, according to rankings
The following defenses find themselves at the bottom (or top, depending on how you look at it) of both lists:
Chicago Bears
New York Giants
Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans
Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals
Las Vegas Raiders
Bolded emphasis represents defenses that have been in the bottom-10 of yards allowed per carry for two straight seasons.
I’m going to omit Cleveland moving forward. They added Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson to their defensive line group, and pairing those two with Myles Garrett seems like a recipe that should work. On paper, the Browns should be better against the run, and that’s enough for me to step away until we see this 2023 version.
Besides that, I’m comfortable moving forward with eight defenses to target early this season for potential rushing props. I will note that the Giants seem like a team that could take a step up in their run defense, but considering how low they were in 2022, marginal improvement still has them sitting in the lower-half of the league.
Players who face off against the league’s worst rush defenses in Week 1
If a statistic is highlighted green, that indicates a top-15 mark across the NFL. The exception is Yards/Attempt. That was ranked by players who averaged north of 8+ carries per game only.
Kansas City RBs vs. Detroit
It’s always nice to get things started with one of the teams that play in the season-opening game. The Chiefs split duties among their three running backs last year, and all three are back in 2023.
Based on how last year ended, Isiah Pacheco is the name to know here. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was put on IR to end the season and was activated prior to the Super Bowl but did not dress. The Chiefs also did not pick up his fifth-year option, which should tell you something about how they view him and his future here.
Pacheco had 37 carries in the postseason to Jerick McKinnon’s 19, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring once.
Washington RBs vs. Arizona
The next few RB groups we highlight were also circled earlier this week as good touchdown targets in Week 1. Beautiful to see some intersections here, and suddenly we have a nice shortlist for the first week of the season.
We’ll start with Washington, a team that seemed to force-feed Brian Robinson the ball last year en route to his 17.1 carries/game. Neither Robinson nor Antonio Gibson were efficient with the ball in their hands, each averaging less than 4.0 yards/carry. Rookie Chris Rodriguez is now in this room, but it figures to once again be a split backfield here for the Commanders.
Baltimore RBs vs. Houston
I covered Melvin Gordon’s presence in this backfield in yesterday’s article, but look at that, Baltimore cut him. That seems to bode well for the health of JK Dobbins, who led this backfield in attempts/game when available. Both Dobbins and Gus Edwards took advantage of their opportunities, averaging north of 5.0 yards/attempt.
Dobbins should slot in as the starter here, and if he can stay healthy, I’m excited to see what he can do on an offense that suddenly has legitimate wide receivers to open the field up. Dobbins is a guy I’ve got circled for yards and touchdowns in Week 1.